Belmont Stakes 2012: The Triple Crown's Last Jewel Is Tough To Handicap

I'll Have Another is the heavy favorite going into the 2012 Belmont Stakes, currently sitting at 4-5, but the Los Angeles Times asks an interesting question Tuesday morning: How much do the oddsmakers know? As it turns out, the answer isn't very much when it comes to the Belmont Stakes, an oddball of a race that combines massive public attention with a longer distance and a clutch of horses with significantly different workloads.

I'm not sure whether the actual narratives Chris Korman uses to discount I'll Have Another's chances are relevant, but the statistic he brings up—that the favorite has won the Belmont Stakes all of three times since 1995—certainly suggest that, whether or not he knows what makes a Belmont winner, nobody else does either. I'll Have Another has a fine shot at completing the Triple Crown, but only because he's a good horse. His being favored since winning the Preakness is only evidence, at this point, that he'll pay out terribly if you bet on him.

More Belmont Stakes 2012 coverage from SB Nation St. Louis:

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