Home Run Derby 2012: Why Carlos Beltran Will Hit Fewer Home Runs After His Swings

ST. LOUIS, MO - JUNE 30: Carlos Beltran #3 of the St. Louis Cardinals collects is 400th career double while playing against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Busch Stadium on June 30, 2012 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)

The St. Louis Cardinals will send Carlos Beltran to the 2012 Home Run Derby, but it's not a big problem. Regression to the mean is.

It's become one of the rites of the Home Run Derby, and we'll see it again at the 2012 All-Star Game: Particularly die-hard fans are, at times, more worried about their player's health than they are excited that he was chosen for the derby--which I, at least, otherwise love to watch. But allow me to confirm this, for my fellow St. Louis Cardinals fans: Carlos Beltran will almost certainly hit fewer home runs after the All-Star Break than he did before. But it's not because of the derby.

It's because he only got to the derby because he was having one of his best first halves ever. Beltran was outstanding last year, and even then he's almost passed his 2011 home run total already. He's playing out of his mind, and the odds of him continuing to do so--at least, exactly in this configuration--are remote whether he participates in the Home Run Derby or not.

So don't worry about the Home Run Derby, because you have bigger problems to deal with: Namely, regression to the mean. It gets everybody.

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