I think most people are comfortable with the idea that Kyle Lohse will be worth a $10-million-or-so contract in 2013—it's the 2014, 2015, and 2016 seasons that worry people, usually in the opposite order. That's why the St. Louis Cardinals backed out after making a qualifying offer, and it might be why the Boston Red Sox rumors have dried up, if this MLBTR nugget is any indication—it says they'd be more interested in Lohse if he were looking for three years.
That might have to be enough for Lohse, whose last two seasons have been excellent—but whose two seasons before those were an injury-plagued mess. It's hard to give a 34-year-old a four-year contract when the four-year contract he got at 30 only paid off twice.
It's an up market for free agents, and it's only going to go further up—but mid-range free agents like Lohse seem least prepared to take advantage of it as teams increasingly value youth and upside. Lohse was outstanding in 2012, but when players reach their mid-30s it's hard to weight that much when projecting what they'll do in 2016.