SB Nation St. Louis - Hiroyuki Nakajima is a bargain, if St. Louis Cardinals are interestedhttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/49009/stl-fave.png2012-12-19T07:01:38-06:00http://stlouis.sbnation.com/rss/stream/33808012012-12-19T07:01:38-06:002012-12-19T07:01:38-06:00Why Hiro Nakajima isn't Tsuyoshi Nishioka
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<figcaption>Jason Miller</figcaption>
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<p>The Oakland Athletics signed Hiroyuki Nakajima to a contract that suggests other teams are worried about signing the next Tsuyoshi Nishioka. Here's why they shouldn't be so afraid.</p> <p>Hiroyuki Nakajima is a much better baseball player than <span>Tsuyoshi Nishioka</span>. That's good news for the <a href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Oakland Athletics</a>, who <a href="http://www.athleticsnation.com/2012/12/17/3778352/as-reportedly-sign-hiroyuki-nakajima-to-two-year-deal" target="_blank">signed him to a two-year contract</a> this week, and it's bad news for me, since I just got done writing <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/cardinals-analysis/2012/11/2/3588524/st-louis-cardinals-hiroyuki-nakajima-rumors" target="_blank">thousands of words about how the Cardinals should sign Hiroyuki Nakajima</a>. In any case: Here's one good reason to believe Hiroyuki Nakajima is a better player than Tsuyoshi Nishioka, who had a truly awful two-year stint with the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Minnesota Twins</a> before going back to Japan.</p>
<p>It's easy: Tsuyoshi Nishioka was not as good a hitter as Hiroyuki Nakajima, then or now, even though it looked like he was.</p>
<p>Nishioka did have one outstanding season to his name. In 2010, the year before he left for Minnesota, he hit .346/.423/.482 as a 25-year-old with the Chiba Lotte Marines. The seasons before it weren't as good, but he showed solid plate discipline and doubles power in each of them.</p>
<p>You'll hear this a lot: In his last two years, Hiroyuki Nakajima has hit .303/.367/.441. Why the last two years? Because in 2011, the year Nishioka spent in Minnesota, offense cratered in Japanese baseball, and it hasn't come back since. In 2010 Nakajima was nearly as good as Nishioka--he hit .314/.385/.511, his third season in a row within a few points either way of a .900 OPS. That year, as both of them vied for the title of best shortstop in the league, the Pacific League average line was .270/.336/.403.</p>
<p>In 2011, with Nishioka gone, it was .251/.308/.348. All those scary five-foot-nothing infielders who hit 30 home runs in Japan and then slapped the ball around in America began slapping the ball around in Japan, and aside from Wladimir Balantien and <span>Nick Stavinoha</span> (you can look it up) everybody stopped slugging .400. The league looked much the same in 2012.</p>
<p>Adjusted for context, then, with some very rough Google-Docs OPS+, here's what their last three years before leaving Japan look like.</p>
<p align="center"><b>TSUYOSHI NISHIOKA</b></p>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<th></th> <th>AVG</th> <th>OBP</th> <th>SLG</th> <th>OPS+</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2008</td>
<td>.300</td>
<td>.357</td>
<td>.463</td>
<td>121</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2009</td>
<td>.260</td>
<td>.360</td>
<td>.427</td>
<td>113</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>.346</td>
<td>.423</td>
<td>.482</td>
<td>145</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td>.306</td>
<td>.371</td>
<td>.459</td>
<td>124</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p align="center"><b>HIROYUKI NAKAJIMA</b></p>
<table border="1"><tbody>
<tr>
<th></th> <th>AVG</th> <th>OBP</th> <th>SLG</th> <th>OPS+</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2010</td>
<td>.314</td>
<td>.385</td>
<td>.511</td>
<td>141</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2011</td>
<td>.297</td>
<td>.354</td>
<td>.433</td>
<td>139</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2012</td>
<td>.311</td>
<td>.382</td>
<td>.451</td>
<td>153</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td>.306</td>
<td>.372</td>
<td>.464</td>
<td>144</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>Nakajima, then, is coming off a better season--adjusted for context--than Nishioka was. And you'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistent hitter in Japanese baseball, even as Japanese baseball itself has fundamentally changed; he's consistently been among Japan's best hitters since 2008, his breakout year.</p>
<p>That might not answer the fundamental question Nishioka presents, which is how an above-average hitter with a great defensive reputation can look so hopeless overseas, but nothing will; every move prevents its own set of risks, and we have less information about this risk than we do, say, how a player will adjust after moving from the AL to the NL.</p>
<p>But it's hard to imagine it was something systemic, and not personal, that caused such a collapse in Nishioka's numbers and his early exit from the states, given the relatively orderly transition of other Japanese infielders like <span>Tadahito Iguchi</span> and <span>Akinori Iwamura</span>. Whatever it was, the player the Athletics <i>have</i> signed is considerably better than the one that warned other teams off of him.</p>
<p>He's also considerably better than <span>Ty Wigginton</span>, but that's something <i>I'll </i>have to learn to deal with.</p>
https://stlouis.sbnation.com/cardinals-rumors-2013/2012/12/19/3782734/hiroyuki-nakajima-tsuyoshi-nishioka-athletics-contractDan Moore2012-12-18T07:30:10-06:002012-12-18T07:30:10-06:00Hiroyuki Nakajima: Better than Ty Wigginton
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<img alt="Hiroyuki Nakajima on the basepaths. " src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/CyaoM0T5iBG_t6Y4ykZZVV-C8G8=/0x0:640x427/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5190609/3401412744_3f4c49c58b_z-1.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Hiroyuki Nakajima on the basepaths. | <a href="http://athomeplate.com/">athomeplate</a></figcaption>
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<p>For two-thirds the price of Stephen Drew, the Oakland Athletics signed Hiroyuki Nakajima for two years. </p> <p>Hiroyuki Nakajima--probably <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/cardinals-analysis/2012/11/2/3588524/st-louis-cardinals-hiroyuki-nakajima-rumors" target="_blank">the St. Louis Cardinals' best second base option</a>--signed a two-year, $6.5 million contract with the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a> on Monday, completely breaking my heart and also giving the A's a remarkably low-risk chance at a cost-controlled, league-average shortstop with a nice bat. Why?</p>
<p>Because they knew that every signing involves risk, and they, apparently, valued the risk of translating Nakajima's numbers much less than other teams did. Which is <i>exactly right. </i>Nakajima might not really be the .311/.382/.451 hitter he was in Japan last year, even though Japan's hitting numbers are <i>way</i> down in the last two years, but $3 million a year doesn't get you anywhere near an .800-OPS guy who might be able to play shortstop in America anyway.</p>
<p>You know what it gets you?<a href="http://stlouis.sbnation.com/cardinals-rumors-2013/2012/12/16/3770880/st-louis-cardinals-ty-wigginton-faq" target="_blank"> Ty Wigginton, basically</a>. The Athletics are betting that, whatever hit Nakajima's numbers take moving from Japan to America, he'll be at least as valuable as not his America equivalent but a .700-OPS guy who probably isn't able to play third base. This is not a huge gamble, but the A's, for whatever reason, were the only team willing to take it. </p>
https://stlouis.sbnation.com/cardinals-rumors-2013/2012/12/18/3778536/hiroyuki-nakajima-contract-oakland-athleticsDan Moore2012-11-10T08:00:43-06:002012-11-10T08:00:43-06:00Hiroyuki Nakajima pursued... by A's, of course
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Pq_-T8KvJVKoCFnOazy06siFMyU=/0x0:638x425/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/2995095/3401412744_3f4c49c58b_z-1.0.jpg" />
<figcaption><a href="http://www.athomeplate.com" />At Home Plate</a></figcaption>
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<p>Hiroyuki Nakajima is one of the best free-agent shortstops available in 2013. Unfortunately, he's from the Japanese leagues, so the Cardinals haven't pursued him.</p> <p>So long as you've watched this site and Viva El Birdos, you don't need to have followed the 2013 MLB rumor mill closely to know that Hiroyuki Nakajima, star shortstop of the Saitama Seibu Lions, is headed to America this year. I've made him into my <a href="http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/cardinals-analysis/2012/11/2/3588524/st-louis-cardinals-hiroyuki-nakajima-rumors" target="_blank">Cardinals free agent cause of choice</a>, which is why I'm so disappointed to report—passed along <a href="http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/11/9/3621302/hiroyuki-nakajima-diamondbacks-athletics" target="_blank">from Baseball Nation</a>—that the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.athleticsnation.com/">Oakland Athletics</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Arizona Diamondbacks</a> are connected to them. </p>
<p>It's pretty easy to make the case for him. Nakajima was one of the top hitters in a hitting-starved Pacific League last year, and in this new dead-ball Japanese scoring environment last year's .311/.382/.451 line feels considerably more trustworthy than infielders did in the Kaz Matsui era. He hits doubles and home runs, he runs well, and if he's not a shortstop full-time he'd be an excellent starting-second-baseman-<i>cum-</i>Furcal's-caddy. </p>
<p>Unfortunately, it looks like he's going to be Oakland or Arizona's caddy, in a single-digit-millions-anually deal that won't go more than two or three years. Admittedly: I'm a huge Japanese baseball fan, and I'd root for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">Cardinals</a> to sign Nakajima even if he weren't very good. But I did the same thing with <span>Norichika Aoki</span>, last year, and he had a pretty great year, right?</p>
https://stlouis.sbnation.com/cardinals-rumors-2013/2012/11/10/3626288/mlb-rumors-2013-hiroyuki-nakajima-athletics-diamondbacksDan Moore2012-11-08T15:44:45-06:002012-11-08T15:44:45-06:00Can the Cardinals depend on Rafael Furcal?
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<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/j0OIOmVw1GDnOqKH_MaLvyY5VD0=/0x60:4000x2727/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/2902867/150846746.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Justin K. Aller</figcaption>
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<p>Should the St. Louis Cardinals' rumored interest in shortstops like Asdrubal Cabrera be dependent on Rafael Furcal's health?</p> <p>I'm not sure how the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> rumor mill—so moribund before we all <a target="_blank" href="http://stlouis.sbnation.com/cardinals-rumors-2013/2012/11/8/3616530/st-louis-cardinals-rumors-asdrubal-cabrera-trade">started arguing about Asdrubal Cabrera</a>—will or ought to react to the latest from Ken Rosenthal, posted to Twitter Thursday afternoon. His suggestion: That the Cardinals won't look at a shortstop unless they have to, because <span>Rafael Furcal</span> is <a target="_blank" href="http://stlouis.sbnation.com/2010/7/30/1595457/the-misadventures-of-kyle-lohse">Progressing Nicely, in the Kyle Lohse tradition</a>. Here's the exact tweet, before we start complaining about it:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet tw-align-center">
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/search/%23STLCards">#STLCards</a>’ Furcal progressing in rehab. Team will not decide whether to pursue another SS until winter mtgs. At this point, not necessary.</p>
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/266635160403984384" data-datetime="2012-11-08T20:15:50+00:00">November 8, 2012</a>
</blockquote>
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<script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>I think everyone expected Rafael Furcal to progress in rehab, and at least to start the season as the team's starting shortstop-or-second-baseman. But what you <i>can't</i> expect Rafael Furcal to do—the reason the Cardinals will find it necessary to pursue another middle infielder, at the meetings or elsewhere—is play a full season.</p>
<p>The 121 games he played in 2012 as he slid gradually into too-hurt-to-play from just-hurt-enough-to-play badly were the second-most he'd appeared in since 2008, the year he turned 30. Now he's a 35-year-old shortstop who's averaged 98 games a year since.</p>
<p>The Cardinals should expect Furcal to start, and they should expect him, if even mostly healthy, to be an above average shortstop (or second baseman.) But they shouldn't expect him to be healthy enough to make it okay that the next guys on their depth chart are <span>Daniel Descalso</span>, Pete Kozma, and the inexplicably doghoused <span>Ryan Jackson</span>.</p>
https://stlouis.sbnation.com/cardinals-rumors-2013/2012/11/8/3619558/st-louis-cardinals-rumors-rafael-furcal-shortstop-2013Dan Moore2012-10-31T08:01:13-05:002012-10-31T08:01:13-05:00Cards should import Hiroyuki Nakajima for 2B
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<img alt="Opening Day at the Tokyo Dome." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/0pRQYpjlywAPJ2ZFDK3gl2mtq_k=/0x0:997x665/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/2358957/142017481.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Opening Day at the Tokyo Dome. | Koji Watanabe</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The St. Louis Cardinals would be a perfect fit for Seibu Lions free agent Hiroyuki Nakajima, who failed to agree to a contract with the New York Yankees last season.</p> <p>Granted: I'm going to root for the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/">St. Louis Cardinals</a> to sign <i>all</i> the Japanese free agents. It's a side effect of being unnervingly into <i>The Melancholy of Haruhi Suzumiya</i>. But Seibu Lions shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, an offense-first type who's a free agent a year after the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">New York Yankees</a> won his posting rights but failed to sign him, is an excellent fit for the Cardinals' light-hitting, injury-prone middle infield. </p>
<p>Last year, in the midst of Japan's offensive drought—the Pacific League's average line was .252/.311/.348 in 2012—he hit .311/.381/.453, with 13 home runs and 29 doubles. (He was a fraction-of-a-hit away from the batting title.) 29 last year, his offensive peak (back before the deadball era) was 2008, when he hit .331/.410/.527 with 21 home runs and 25 stolen bases in 30 chances.</p>
<p>The question has always been <a href="http://www.npbtracker.com/2012/10/2013-free-agents/" target="_blank">whether he's a full-time shortstop defensively</a>, which is not a problem for the Cardinals. Nakajima's role in St. Louis would be to play second base while <span>Rafael Furcal</span> was healthy; at shortstop he'd be the offensive backup, with likely utility infielder <span>Ryan Jackson</span> carrying the defensive side of the job. Basically he'd be <span>Daniel Descalso</span>, only he once hit 27 home runs in a season. </p>
<p>Major League translations are an art and a science, but the <a style="background-color: #ffffff;" href="http://www.claydavenport.com/ht/NAKAJIMA19820731A.shtml" target="_blank">.270/.342/.412 MLB line</a> Clay Davenport gets out of his NPB numbers would be a nice upgrade. Nakajima signed a one year deal worth $3.6 million with Seibu last year after the Yankees failed to sign him, following a posting bid of $2 million. Now he's a full-fledged free agent, and the Cardinals should really take a look. </p>
https://stlouis.sbnation.com/cardinals-rumors-2013/2012/10/31/3579578/st-louis-cardinals-hiroyuki-nakajima-rumorsDan Moore