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Albert Pujols's Contract And Alex Rodriguez

There's an interesting article from Derrick Goold over at the P-D re: the continually inscrutable Albert Pujols contract negotiations. Goold, who is probably as in the dark as the rest of us, wonders whether or not the St. Louis Cardinals will take a page from the New York Yankees' recent history in dealing with one-of-a-kind talents and give Pujols some Alex Rodriguez-inspired historic-performance clauses. 

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Rodriguez—you can see all the details on the indispensable Cot's Contracts—gets $6 million each for hitting 660, 714, 755, and 763 home runs. Goold digs a little deeper and comes to the conclusion that these aren't bonuses so much as marketing agreements, which is fascinating. 

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As for Pujols's future records, Bill James's Career Assessments tool, formerly known as the Favorite Toy, gives us a chance to look at his odds of breaking a number of baseball records. It puts him at a 35% chance of hitting 700 home runs, which would itself be outstanding. For, let's say, 800 home runs, he gets a 13% chance. (Rodriguez gets 20%.) He's got a better than 50/50 shot at making 3000 hits. 

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My personal favorite obscure record: He has a 21% chance of breaking Tris Speaker's doubles record and hitting number 793. I think that's worth $6 million, but he'll have to watch for Nick Markakis, who seems determined never to turn his doubles power into home run power, in his rear-view mirror.