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St. Louis Cardinals PECOTA: Colby Rasmus No, Lance Berkman Yes

The St. Louis Cardinals' PECOTA projections for 2011 are out from Baseball Prospectus—subscribers only, I'm afraid—and they've got a startlingly pessimistic take on Colby Rasmus; Lance Berkman's nice projection (.264/.380/.456) is only partial consolation for Rasmus's .254/.331/.417 line. (Rasmus's defense is also forecasted pessimistically—seven runs below average—but BP hasn't been known for its defensive statistics in recent years; it suggests that Pete Kozma and Matt Carpenter are worth 14 and 12 runs above average with the glove, which would come as quite a shock to people who've watched Kozma and Carpenter.)

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It's easy to see where the projection comes from; Rasmus had a high BAbip last year, an ugly 2009, and a brief and unsatisfying 2008 in AAA. There's little to go on unless you take his breakout in 2010 as the long-awaited culmination of his promise in 2007, when he hit .275/.381/.551 with 29 home runs and 37 doubles in 128 AA games. ZiPS, at least, publicly available, is more optimistic: .262/.341/.443, for an OPS+ of 110. 

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The good news—Jim Edmonds's comps at 41 include... Stan Musial! He's a Real St. Louisan Hero.

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