St. Louis Rams have the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 NFL draft, and one of the most popular picks at that spot in mock drafts has been Oklahoma State Cowboys wide receiver Justin Blackmon. He's considered an elite receiving prospect by most talented evaluators, and as someone who could provide an explosive receiving option for quarterback Sam Bradford on the outside, but apparently not everyone agrees.
Josh Norris of Rotoworld has done "extensive film study" and has emerged with a list of 10 players he believes "are receiving too much positive attention in media evaluations and mock drafts." Justin Blackmon is the first name the appears on his overrated prospect list:
Oklahoma State WR Justin Blackmon (6-1/215/4.54) - Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn't a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.
With the No. 2 overall pick, the Rams can't afford to miss on their first-round selection. Whether they share Norris' opinion of Blackmon is yet to be determined. The NFL Combine should go a long way towards crystallizing the list of top prospects at each position.
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