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NFL Picks 2012: Robert Griffin III Reality Check Predicted, Courtesy St. Louis Rams

It's not often people call upon the St. Louis Rams to do much of anything but lose in an NFL Picks column, but Andrew Sharp at SB Nation has them not only winning but delivering a reality check to Robert Griffin III and the Washington Redskins, in the wake of RG3's outstanding debut. I'm more than happy to believe it—I'd love to see Sam Bradford outplay RG3 now that we're going to get comparisons between them until the end of time—but there's an interesting set of dueling reality checks at work here.


One: Is Robert Griffin III the best quarterback in football? Almost definitely not. He's probably very good, but I doubt he'll go 19-for-26 and average more than 10 yards an attempt for two weeks in a row. The Rams will look very good if they're the ones pressuring Griffin when this happens, because most people don't understand regression to the mean.


Two: Is the St. Louis Rams' secondary the kind of secondary that will regularly cause Matthew Stafford types to collapse in a puddle of sweat? Well, probably not. They're much better than they used to be, thanks to Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins, but they probably won't intercept a top-tier quarterback three times two weeks in a row.